2008?

My recent trip to the Salon des Vignerons Independants was an eye-opener in many, many ways. Interesting on one level to experience the social-politico divide in France, but more importantly as a glimpse into who will survive in 2008. It is not news to anyone that the dollar is tanking, with a long way left to fall. Once the 1.50 barrier is crossed, there really is absolutely nothing to stop it before we are at 1.60 or even a number I have heard bandied about: €1=$1.75! When that happens, I predict that there will be a serious readjustment, if not a rude awakening in the market.

It's going to be more than difficult for those name-brand "national importers" to get away with with what they've been getting away with for so many years. What may have been the 'best' in the past is at the very least no longer the best deal. Maybe that's the kind of game you can play with a $1.20 Euro but those days are over. Don't get me wrong, I prefer to have durable relationships with my suppliers, but when they raise the prices excessively, reduce allocations, and produce wines that are inferior and overpriced compared to the new guy down the street who has something to prove - well it's hard to be too sentimental under such conditions. European producers have understood that they need to compete on several levels, not just one, and that they are competing against the whole world now.
The scene is a lot more fluid nowadays and things move a lot faster. It is simply no longer sufficient in the wine business to rest on your laurels, because those laurels are changing hands yearly. Every year or so it seems old and inflexible growers are dying off and being replaced by young people who literally revitalize the domaines - some of France's biggest star vignerons and vigneronnes are only in their 20s. In other cases the kids, uninterested, are happy to sell to outsiders who often bring new ideas and an obsession with quality to bear on production.
TBC